While Mark Twain was talking about his own death, there is another reported death that I am thinking about.  Back in January 2009 I included a quote about banner ads being the next direct mail.  I mean no offense to direct mail but the implication was that the value of a banner ad was diminishing.  The belief was that banner ads were being replaced by social media, which is a disruptive technology much in the same way that e-mail marketing has replaced direct mail in many industries and situations.  Direct mail still is a valuable channel but it is being used more selectively than it once was.

Well reports of the death of the banner ad might be premature.  A recent study by eMarketer predicts that banner ad spending in 2010 will be up 8.2%.

The question I am increasingly asked is how do you measure social media and what is its ROI?  Given the economy there has been an increased demand for accountability and measurement.  The question is how do you apply this to a channel that is about brand awareness? 

There is the question of source material.  In many cases this translates into what web sites do you follow?

1. Your company web site(s)
2. Social media web sites (e.g., Facebook, Twitter)
3. Individuals’ personal blogs

What metrics do you measure?  Below are just some ideas.

1. Number of tweets
2. Number and ratio of positive comments
3. Number Facebook fans and Twitter followers
4. Links to personal sites that fans and customers have added to their web sites and blogs
5. Level of engagement with your company web site

Lastly, how do you establish causality?  It is difficult to determine if events in the social space are affecting purchasing behavior in the bricks and mortar space.  As my Statistics Professor said so often, “correlation does not mean causation”.

I worked with a Greek statistician who would always try to correct my pronunciation of the Greek letter chi.  I would say “kai” and he would say something similar to “he”.  It was like he and key combined.  I can’t do it justice so I continued to say kai. 

Regardless of how you pronounce it, the chi square test can be very useful.  In fact, one of my business school classes was spent discussing the uses and assumptions of the chi square test.  I won’t try to summarize a semester’s worth of material into a blog post.  Rather, I wanted to point out that chi square tests are used for categorical data and the only “gotcha” is that you have to use the actual counts (rather than percentages).  It is sensitive to cell counts and requires that there be at least 5 observations per cell. 

The chi square test is a powerful statistical tool as it can tell you if there are significant differences between categories and it is the foundation for CHAID.  CHAID is an abbreviation for CHi-square Automated Interaction Detector.  It is one of the many segmentation techniques used in marketing and, if you plot out the tree that results from CHAID, it is a wonderfully visual way to see differences within your customers and/or prospects.  For CHAID you will need to define a dependent variable and undergo EDA (exploratory data analysis) similar to a modeling project.

One of my clients is focused heavily on e-mailing his customers.  However, it is only part of the equation.  Consumers are increasingly online 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.  Yes, they are still checking e-mails but they are also on Facebook, Twitter and blogs. 

It used to be that the question was direct mail or e-mail?  Now the question is not what channel to use but rather which channels to leverage.  The direct marketing strategy needs to consider traditional direct channels, such as e-mail and direct mail, as well as social networking sites.  The need for integration of branding and messaging has become even more important as consumers have a multitude of ways to learn about your company and its products and services. 

The other challenge with the plethora of channels that have evolved is that consumers are bombarded with information.  Some are abandoning their e-mail accounts because they are overwhelmed by their inboxes.  Others ignore their inboxes in favor of communication channels they control.  I don’t bother sending my sister e-mails anymore because they disappear into the black hole that is her inbox.  However, she will respond instantaneously to a text message and will e-mail me on occasion, when it is the best channel for her to communicate with me.   

As marketers, we need to go where our customers are and offer them relevant and honest information.

Accountable marketing is a lofty goal.  It is the idea that marketing can and should be measured.  It sounds simple but is difficult to implement and execute.  It starts with planning and identifying metrics for success up front and ends with calculating ROI and other relevant metrics as well as incorporating lessons learned into future marketing efforts.

I have written about metrics before.  In fact, my New Year’s Resolutions post included a suggestion to test, measure and learn.  Even in social media there are now agreed upon metrics.  The Interactive Agency Bureau (IAB) has released social media ad metric definitions. 

Given the current tough economic climate, there is no reason not to measure and evaluate your marketing efforts.   How else can you know what worked, what did not work and whether your efforts have met your threshold or definition for success?

Today’s Wall Street Journal had the following comment by Colleen DeCourcy, chief digital officer at Omnicom’s TBWA:

“Banner ads will be the new junk mail.  More and more, reputable companies won’t be buying up the space around the Web sites you visit.  Clicking these ads will become less and less legitimate as brands will endeavor to do things that add more value to you in the social-media and customer-service space.”

SodaHead.com seems to be the exception to the conventional wisdom that click through rates for banner ads are low.  SodaHead is an online community and according to a Wall Street Journal article a few weeks ago, “SodaHead ads enjoy click and conversion rates of as much as 10 times the industry average.”  As I wrote in an earlier post, click through rates for banner ads are typically much less than 1%.  The click through rate refers to the number of times a banner ad was clicked.  For example, if a banner ad was displayed 100 times and it was clicked on once, the click through rate would be 1%.

There are several ways that you can try to increase the likely click through rate.  You can optimize placement by displaying your banner ad on a website with synergy.  Alternatively, you can use rich media to make the ad more noticeable and engaging.  Personalization is also likely to increase clicks.  So how does SodaHead do it?  They ask provocative questions and engage viewers by asking for their opinions.

Though SodaHead has a high click through rate, what is their return on investment (ROI)?  My question remains.  What is the value of a banner ad?  As the Wall Street Journal article points out, SodaHead has yet to make money.

Social media is a hot topic this year and it is likely to remain a hot topic in 2009.  I even found myself talking about it over dinner last night.  That is what happens when two marketers get together for dinner and a movie.  Somehow we end up talking shop.

So you may yawn when I say that I have suggested to a client that she develop an internal blog.  However, it can help her achieve her goals by educating users about an internal resource, disseminating information about enhancements to the system, and reducing calls to the internal help desk by building a community of users that learn from each other.  Believe it or not, there are companies that do not have blogs yet.  I can understand their hesitation.  Blogs result in a loss of control as the blog may move in unintended or undesirable directions.  Further, it can inspire resistance from managers.  There is also the additional work involved as it requires that staff monitor the site and address questions or criticisms at a minimum.    They will probably need to write posts.  Blogs are a lot of work.  Ron Shevlin in his blog states, “a helluva lot of time and effort” went into creating his posts.  (In the interest of full disclosure, I had the pleasure of working with Ron a few years ago.)

To be successful, the blog must focus on what users care about;  it must be about their needs rather than the needs of the company to have credibility and gain acceptance.  If it does so, it will develop a devoted audience.  Again to use Ron’s blog as an example, his post announcing the end of his blog has 55 comments as I write this.  This was after just writing his blog for two years.    I too will miss Ron’s thoughtful posts.

As much as I like to measure and quantify, it is too early to try to assign a dollar value to social media.  Marketers are still trying to figure out how to use social media effectively.  Until they do, they will not be able to measure the impact of social media on their efforts and their brands more generally. 

If you are interested, Limeduck has posted about a tweet up held by a Boston radio station, WBUR, to explore and discuss social media.  Also, Tangyslice has also begun interviewing “real people using Web 2.0 to improve the way they do business”.